Влияние «эффекта бабочки» на экономику

The influence of the butterfly effect in economics

Abstract. The article researches such a phenomenon as the butterfly effect. The author studies the meaning of the phenomenon paying attention on the fact that although the butterfly effect allows making an approximate forecast, it is not always feasible to accurately predict the outcome in the long run.

Keywords: the butterfly effect, forecast, outcome, economics, actions, interconnection.

According to Edward Lawrence’s chaos theory, the butterfly effect is a phenomenon that refers to the idea that small, seemingly insignificant events can have large and unforeseen consequences over time. It is based on the idea that even the slightest changes to initial conditions in a complex system can lead to significantly different outcomes. It will be suggested in this article that even though the butterfly effect promotes making an approximate forecast, it is not possible to accurately predict events for the long term. The butterfly effect rests on the notion that the world is deeply interconnected, so that one small occurrence can influence a much larger complex system.

The butterfly effect in economics is manifested in the fact that one event changes the situation and determines the sequence of certain actions [4]. This dependence has also manifested itself in the situation with workers in various fields, in particular in Russia. The sudden events of COVID-19 have led to a change in the format of many people's work [6]. Before the lockdown, about 8% of all employees worked online or from home, according to surveys. The rest of the working population visited their place of work according to their schedule. During the lockdown, the employer was forced to transfer employees to a remote work mode and this showed results higher than expected, and many employers have left this format of work till nowadays. The butterfly effect manifested itself in the fact that sudden events led to global changes in the employees’ working conditions, while reducing the cost of maintaining most offices.

Another example of the butterfly effect in business is Western sanctions against Russia, especially a ban on the sale of cars. The European Union, America and a number of other countries imposed a ban on the supply of cars for the Russian market in 2022 [5]. The decisions taken affected the performance of global automakers and sellers. The imposed restrictions demonstrated a drop in sales volumes in all major markets [1]. According to statistics, the total reduction in sales from leading automotive companies amounted to 61.2% in 2022 [3]. In short, the butterfly effect manifested itself in the fact that the restrictions of most countries on the import of cars to Russia led to a decrease in consumption and the loss of part of the profits of many automobile companies, since the share of the Russian market was significant. Another consequence is that the market was quickly filled with new suppliers, such as Chinese manufacturers.

Finally, the butterfly effect is not a new phenomenon in the economic and social spheres. There are examples in history of events whose consequences people feel today. The Chernobyl disaster [2]. In 1986, a failed test at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant occurred and because of this, 400 times more radiation was released into the air than during the bombing of Hiroshima. One hundred and fifteen thousand people were evacuated from the area, many of them died or suffered birth defects after exposure to radiation. Even today, some areas remain uninhabitable. Indeed, the entire Chernobyl disaster was the result of poor design and incompetence of the staff. The long-term result has been widespread concern about nuclear power plants and prejudice against nuclear power, which has led to a preference for fossil fuels. Some people suggest that Chernobyl is responsible for accelerating global warming, as countries have become too slow to switch to nuclear power.

In conclusion, as the humbling butterfly effect indicates there is not much that needs to change for a bigger event to occur. Even the identification of the butterfly effect had significant impacts on how scientists and economists understood the world. This suggests significant insights for marketing. It suggests small simple actions could be a catalyst for becoming a successful business.